Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."