Intensifying Verbal Conflict Between Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Raises Concerns of Military Confrontation

Growing concerns are present regarding the possibility of warfare involving Horn of Africa neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in 2023 that his government's access to the sea was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Ties between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it without sea access.

Subsequently, a military clash broke out in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Current Comments from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean southern port of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and suggested the wish to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing access to the sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "rectified in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

In the face of ongoing challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been restricted to concise remarks on social media from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea calling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a approach of retaking lost territory.

The information ministry alerted on recently that moves to justify "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Border

Currently, there are no reports of major military movements in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in the country, national TV has shown completion events of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The head of personnel division of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an conversation that the army was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Past Roots of the Conflict

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by Italian colonisers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British administration before turning into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 the ruler terminated this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long internal conflict followed, ending with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Independence was then confirmed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the exact location of their mutual frontier, leading to conflict in 1998.

Though this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries continued at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two endorsed a statement that the conflict was over – a move that gained Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then partners in the country's previous internal conflict in Tigray.

However relations have since broken down again.